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Institutional · 13F Filing Strategy
13F Conviction
by Trado Research VERIFIED
+30.0%
CAGR (Feb 2020–present)
+14.6%
Alpha vs SPY
63.8%
Win rate
0.84
Sharpe ratio
Overview
Holdings
Methodology
History
Portfolio Return
+419.0%
Since inception · Feb 2020
vs SPY: +131.4% · α +287.6%
YTD
6M
1Y
3Y
All
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13F Conviction
SPY Benchmark
Current Holdings · Q1 2026 Filing
Stock Weight Conviction Signal Return since entry
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View all 10 holdings →
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Quarterly Performance
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Per-quarter portfolio return computed from daily equity curve. Includes both fully-closed and currently-open positions marked-to-market. Auto-updates each rebalance.
About this portfolio

13F Conviction tracks up to 12 elite active hedge funds via their mandatory SEC 13F quarterly filings. Rather than copying any single manager, the strategy identifies the stocks that the largest number of these funds hold simultaneously — high-consensus institutional positions.


Each quarter, ~45 days after quarter-end when 13F filings are released, the strategy ranks the top-10 most-held stocks across tracked funds (minimum 2 funds required). Positions still in top-10 are held across quarters — never sold while in consensus. Only stocks that drop out of top-10 are replaced (1:1) by new entrants. Equal allocation at entry, no early exits, no stop loss, no parameter tuning.

How signals are generated
1
Data collection. Each quarter, tracked funds' 13F-HR filings are parsed from SEC EDGAR. Holdings, share counts, and reported values are extracted per stock and CUSIP.
2
Aggregation. Across all tracked funds for the quarter, count how many funds hold each stock. Filter: equity only (no puts/calls), shares > 0, held by at least 2 funds.
3
Top-10 selection. Rank by fund count (ties broken by total reported value). Top 10 enter the portfolio at equal weight.
4
Hold while in consensus. Each rebalance keeps positions still in top-10 untouched. Only stocks dropping out are sold; cash from dropouts funds new entrants 1:1. Hold lengths range from one quarter to multiple years.
All Holdings · Q1 2026 Filing
Updated May 15, 2026 · Next: Aug 14, 2026
# Stock Sector Weight Conviction Signal Entry date Return
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Sector Breakdown · Current Holdings
Semiconductors 3 stocks · 30% — AVGO, TSM, NVDA
Mega-Cap Tech / Software 3 stocks · 30% — MSFT, GOOGL, META
E-Commerce / Streaming 2 stocks · 20% — AMZN, NFLX
EV / Mobility 2 stocks · 20% — TSLA, UBER
Overview

13F Conviction is a systematic, rules-based long-only strategy that follows the most widely-held equities across a tracked universe of institutional 13F filers — sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. It aggregates positions across all tracked funds each quarter and selects the stocks with the highest fund-count consensus.

The strategy uses simple, transparent rules with no parameter tuning. Backtested on actual filings from February 2020 to present (6.29 years, prices auto-refresh daily).

Strategy Parameters
Fund universe
Up to 22
Hedge funds, family offices, and long-only managers. 18–22 active per quarter.
Min funds required
≥ 2 funds
Stock must appear in at least 2 tracked portfolios to qualify
Hold period
Variable
Until stock drops from top-10. Can span single quarter to multiple years.
Portfolio size
Top 10
Top 10 stocks by fund count (ties broken by total reported $ value)
Weighting scheme
Equal weight
1/N allocation — no conviction tilt, no concentration risk
Rebalance frequency
Quarterly
Triggered at MAX(filing_date) per quarter (~45 days post quarter-end)
Signal Generation Pipeline
1
EDGAR parsing. Each quarter (~45 days after quarter-end), tracked funds' 13F-HR filings are fetched from SEC EDGAR and parsed. Holdings, share counts, CUSIPs, and reported market values are extracted per filing.
2
Aggregation. For the quarter, group holdings by CUSIP and count distinct CIKs (funds) holding each stock. Filter: equity only (put_call IS NULL), shares > 0, minimum 2 funds.
3
Ranking. Sort the qualifying universe by fund count descending. Ties broken by total reported USD value. Take top 10.
4
Execution. At the trigger date (MAX filing_date for the quarter), liquidate all existing positions and allocate equal-weight (1/10 = 10% each) into the new top-10. Use first available close price ≥ trigger date.
5
Hold. Positions are held without intervention until the next quarter's rebalance. No stop loss, no early exit, no momentum override. Simple buy-and-hold within each quarter.
Tracked Funds (12 elite)
Filings from a curated set of 12 elite active hedge funds — concentrated stock pickers, activists, growth specialists, plus 3 quantitative / macro firms. Passive index funds (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street, Fidelity, etc.) are excluded — their "holdings" represent index ownership, not conviction. Typically 11 of 12 file each quarter.
Citadel Advisors Coatue Management Tiger Global Baupost Group Pershing Square Soros Fund Management ARK Investment Point72 Asset Mgmt Viking Global Renaissance Technologies Two Sigma Investments Bridgewater Associates
Fund list reflects CIKs ingested into the historical 13F database. Names shown are best-effort labels from EDGAR registrant data.
Backtest Summary
Backtested on actual SEC 13F filings from February 14, 2020 through latest available trading day (6.29 years). Entry uses each quarter's actual MAX(filing_date) — no synthetic lag. Equity tracked daily. closed trades + 10 currently open positions. Prices refresh daily.
CAGR
+30.0%
Total return
+419.0%
Alpha vs SPY
+14.6%
Sharpe ratio
0.84
Win rate
63.8%
Max drawdown
−48.6%
Backtest caveat. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Strategy lost −41.6% in 2022 vs SPY −18.2% (alpha −23.5%) — concentrated hedge fund picks crashed together. Hold-while-consensus does NOT protect on the downside when smart money is collectively wrong. Worst daily drawdown −48.6%. Most cumulative alpha was earned in 2020 + 2023–2024 (AI rally). 2026 YTD underperforming SPY (alpha −5.1%). Vulnerable to consensus regime shifts. Long-only US equity exposure, no hedge.
Annual Performance vs SPY
Year Strategy SPY Alpha Cumulative
2020 (Feb–Dec) +73.0% +12.8% +60.2% +73%
2021 +23.5% +28.7% −5.2% +114%
2022 −41.6% −18.2% −23.5% +25%
2023 +74.1% +26.2% +47.9% +118%
2024 +69.2% +24.9% +44.3% +269%
2025 +33.2% +17.7% +15.4% +389%
2026 YTD +6.2% +11.2% −5.1% +419%
Cumulative returns since inception (Feb 14, 2020). Strategy uses hold-while-in-consensus — positions are kept across quarters as long as the stock stays in top-10 of 12 elite active hedge funds. 2022 was the worst year (−41.6%, alpha −23.5%). Most cumulative alpha earned in 2020 + 2023–2024 (AI rally). 2021 + 2026 YTD underperformed SPY.
Year-by-Year Notes
2020 (Feb–Dec)
+73.0%
Strategy launched Feb 14, 2020 (Q4 2019 filings). Caught COVID-recovery rally aggressively — +73.0% vs SPY +12.8%, alpha +60.2%. Best year of the backtest. Concentrated hedge fund picks (FB, AMZN, TSLA) re-rated hard.
2021
+23.5%
Underperformed SPY (+23.5% vs +28.7%, alpha −5.2%). Hedge fund consensus had rotated into growth names that lagged broad market. First red flag: elite consensus is not magic — it underperforms when smart money is wrong-positioned vs the trend.
2022
−41.6%
Worst year. Strategy lost −41.6% vs SPY −18.2% — alpha −23.5%. Concentrated hedge fund picks (META, SQ, PYPL, NVDA, INTC) all crashed simultaneously. Hold-while-consensus did NOT save the year — when smart money is collectively wrong, this strategy gets hit harder than index. Worst daily drawdown: −48.6%.
2023
+74.1%
AI rally + post-2022 rebound. +74.1% vs SPY +26.2% → alpha +47.9%. The names that crashed in 2022 (META −45%, AMZN −30%) were held through the bottom and rebounded big.
2024
+69.2%
AI rally extended to compute stack — AVGO, TSM, AMD entered consensus. Long-held NVDA (since Aug 2023) compounded massively. +69.2% vs SPY +24.9% → alpha +44.3%.
2025
+33.2%
+33.2% vs SPY +17.7% → alpha +15.4%. Mega-cap compounders continued working. NVDA, GOOGL, META, AMZN long holds drove returns.
2026 (YTD)
+6.2%
YTD through May 29, 2026: +6.2% vs SPY +11.2% → alpha −5.1%. DASH −30% YTD + SE realized −35% at May 18 rebal dragged returns. Long-held mega-caps (NVDA, GOOGL, TSM, AMZN, AVGO) all positive, but new consensus names (DASH, SE) hurt. Cautionary tale: consensus is not magic, especially in lateral years.
Key Milestones
Feb 14, 2020
Backtest inception. Q4 2019 13F batch fully filed. Initial 10-stock equal-weight portfolio deployed at $100 base.
2021
First year roughly matching SPY (+30.3% vs +28.7%) — alpha only +1.6%. Demonstrated that in broad bull markets, the strategy carries no special edge.
2022
Worst year. Strategy lost −41.6% vs SPY −18.2% (alpha −23.5%). Concentrated hedge fund consensus picks all crashed: META, PYPL, SQ, NVDA, INTC. Worst daily drawdown of the entire backtest: −48.6%.
2023 H2
AI rally accelerates. NVDA, META, AMZN dominate consensus picks. Single best closed trade of the backtest: META +104% (Q3 2022 entry → Q1 2023 exit).
2024
Second year of mega-cap dominance: +59.8% vs SPY +24.9%. Combined with 2023, this 24-month stretch generated ~70% of cumulative alpha.
Nov 14, 2025
Q3 2025 rebalance. INTC newly entered top-10 (later sold at +206% in May 2026). Long-held NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN remain.
May 18, 2026
Q4 2025 + Q1 2026 filings reached MAX(filing_date) = May 15, 2026. Partial rotation only: INTC, AMD, INTU and others dropped from top-10 — replaced 1:1 by AVGO, TSLA, NFLX, UBER. Long-held NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, TSM kept untouched.
Today
Cumulative return: +419.0% over 6.29 years (CAGR +30.0%, alpha vs SPY +14.6%, Sharpe 0.84). Prices auto-refresh daily. Next rebalance trigger: Q2 2026 13F filings (~mid-Aug 2026).
Trade Log · All Transactions
Date Action Ticker Company Price Trigger Return
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Prices are adjusted close (split + dividend adjusted via Yahoo Finance). "Open" positions held as of May 29, 2026. Returns are per-position gross, excluding transaction costs and tax. Trade ledger auto-updates from /data/13f-conviction-results.json each time a new 13F batch is processed.
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