| Filing | Entry | Exit | Basket | Equity | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '24 | Feb 13, 2025 | May 15, 2025 | 6 longs | $100.00 → $84.62 | -15.38% |
| Q1 '25 | May 15, 2025 | Aug 15, 2025 | 11 longs | $84.62 → $115.80 | +36.84% |
| Q2 '25 | Aug 15, 2025 | Nov 17, 2025 | 7 longs | $115.80 → $138.10 | +19.26% |
| Q3 '25 | Nov 17, 2025 | Feb 12, 2026 | 15 (91%) longs | $138.10 → $156.45 | +13.29% |
| Q4 '25 | Feb 12, 2026 | May 19, 2026 | 22 (99%) longs | $156.45 → $230.76 | +47.50% |
| Q1 '26 | May 19, 2026 | Aug 17, 2026 | 23 (98%) longs | $230.76 → $228.83 | -0.84% |
| Q2 '26 | Aug 17, 2026 | open | 16 (88%) longs | $228.83 → $205.38 | -10.25% |
Leopold Aschenbrenner is one of the most-watched narrative-defining managers in the market. Former OpenAI Superalignment researcher, his "Situational Awareness" thesis on AGI scaling is referenced across the AI investing landscape. When he rotates this aggressively, allocators pay attention — and his options book is often a leading indicator for how the AI-infrastructure trade reprices.
Trado tracks Situational Awareness LP as a signal source — not a portfolio to copy. The barbell structure (puts on chip leaders + longs on infrastructure picks-and-shovels) is the kind of pattern that's hard to surface from aggregate 13F data and worth watching position-by-position.
| # | Ticker | Name | Weight | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INFY | Infosys | 100.0% | $5M |
| # | Ticker | Name | Weight | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SNDK | Sandisk | 28.1% | $5.67B |
| 2 | MU | Micron Technology | 27.6% | $5.57B |
| 3 | BE | Bloom Energy | 9.4% | $1.90B |
| 4 | TSM | Taiwan Semiconduct | 6.3% | $1.27B |
| 5 | Nebius Gro | Nebius Group N.V. | 6.1% | $1.23B |
| 6 | CRWV | Coreweave | 3.7% | $745M |
| 7 | CORZ | Core Scientific Ne | 3.3% | $666M |
| 8 | Stmicroele | Stmicroelectronics | 2.9% | $584M |
Positions parsed from SEC Form 13F-HR filing by Situational Awareness LP (CIK 0002045724) for the quarter ending Mar 31, 2026. Filing date: May 18, 2026 (45-day filing window).
13F filings disclose long equity, options, and convertible holdings above the reporting threshold. Short stock positions are not required to be reported. Put options are reported as a notional long-side filing entry — Trado labels them on the hedge side based on intent.
Leopold Aschenbrenner is the founder and CIO of Situational Awareness LP, a thematic hedge fund focused on the AI scaling thesis. Before launching the fund, he was a researcher on OpenAI's Superalignment team.
His 2024 essay series "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" laid out a multi-trillion-dollar AI infrastructure buildout thesis that has become a reference point for institutional AI investing. The fund's positioning is widely watched by AI-thematic allocators.
Side 1 — Hedge crowded chip leaders. Names like NVDA, AVGO, AMD, ORCL trade at high multiples, are widely held, and carry significant index weight. They are the most exposed to a re-rating if AI capex slows or competition compresses margins.
Side 2 — Stay long the picks & shovels. The infrastructure underneath the model layer — power (BE), storage (SNDK), neoclouds (CRWV), datacenter operators (APLD, IREN), and miners pivoting to HPC hosting (CLSK, RIOT, HIVE) — captures AI demand without the chip-leader concentration risk.
The net read: long AI demand, short AI valuations. If both sides work, you profit on the hedge while compounding on infra. If chip leaders rip, the longs are still positively correlated.
| Quarter | Filed | Long disclosed | Put notional | Call notional | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | May 18, 2026 | $3.86B | $8.46B | $1.36B | Barbell built. INTC flipped bearish. Miners added. |
| Q4 2025 | Feb 11, 2026 | $3.91B | $9M | $1.59B | BE scaled to $876M. LITE initiated. Heavy call book. |
| Q3 2025 | Nov 14, 2025 | $2.24B | $887M | $1.01B | CRWV peak ($563M). First put hedges initiated. |
| Q2 2025 | Aug 14, 2025 | $1.10B | $570M | $453M | AVGO became largest position. IREN, APLD initiated. |
| Q1 2025 | May 14, 2025 | $546M | — | $460M | AVGO + ONTO added. CRWV first appears post-IPO. |
| Q4 2024 | Feb 12, 2025 | $255M | — | — | First 13F filing. MRVL ($87M) + power/cooling thesis. |
backtest/ingest_leopold_edgar.py. CIK 0002045724.| Quarter | Ticker | From | To | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 '26 | INTC | $747M call | $159M put | Bullish → Bearish |
| Q1 '26 | CRWV | $3.26B long | $556M long | −83% trim |
| Q1 '26 | BE | $1.37B long | $879M long | −36% trim |
| Q1 '26 | CLSK | Small | Large | +648% shares |
| Q1 '26 | RIOT | Existing | Scaled | +87% shares |
| Q1 '26 | HIVE | — | New stake | New position |